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[000049629]
European Union. European Commission. Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs
The 2012 ageing report : underlying assumptions and projection methodologies / prepared by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs and the Economic Policy Committee ; Ageing Working Group
In: 001000043848 Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs European Economy Nº 4 (2011) 322 p. 0379-0991 PP1606/6
. - Luxembourg : Publications Office, 2011. - (European Economy ; Nº 4 (2011). ISSN 0379-0991 ). - Fascículo. - Documento eletrónico. - Relatório. - "In 2010, the ECOFIN Council gave the Economic Policy Committee (EPC) a mandate to update its common exercise of age-related expenditure projections by the autumn of 2012 on the basis of a new population projection by Eurostat. The long-term age-related expenditure projections provide an indication of the timing and scale of changes in economic developments that could result from an ageing population in a ‘no-policy change’ scenario. The projections show where (in which countries), when, and to what extent ageing pressures will accelerate as the baby-boom generation retires and average life span in the EU continues to increase. Hence, the updated projections of age-related expenditure and the associated sustainability assessments will provide important insights on both the economic impact of ageing and the risks to the long-term sustainability of Member States’ public finances reflecting new economic environment, affected by a durable impact of the current crisis, and further reform effort by EU MS. This first report provides a description of underlying macroeconomic assumptions and projection methodologies of the age-related expenditure projections for all Member States. On the basis of these underlying assumptions and methodologies, age-related expenditures covering pensions, health care, long-term care, education and unemployment transfers will be calculated and presented to the ECOFIN Council in May 2012 ." [editor]. - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
PART I — UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS AND PROJECTION METHODOLOGIES
1. POPULATION
1.1. BACKGROUND AND GENERAL APPROACH
1.2. PROJECTION OF FERTILITY RATES
1.2.1. Past trends
1.2.2. The EUROPOP2010 projection
1.3. PROJECTION OF LIFE EXPECTANCY
1.3.1. Past trends
1.3.2. The EUROPOP2010 projection
1.4. PROJECTION OF NET MIGRATION FLOWS
1.4.1. Past trends and driving forces
1.4.2. The EUROPOP 2010 projection
1.5. OVERALL RESULTS OF THE EUROPOP2010 POPULATION PROJECTION
1.6. POPULATION AGEING IN THE EU IN A GLOBAL CONTEXT
1.7. COMPARISON WITH THE EUROPOP2008 DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTION USED IN THE 2009 AGEING REPORT
2. LABOUR FORCE PROJECTIONS
2.1. INTRODUCTION
2.2. PAST TRENDS AND MAIN DRIVERS OF LABOUR MARKET DEVELOPMENTS
2.3. MAIN FEATURES OF THE COHORT SIMULATION MODEL (CSM) AND MAIN ASSUMPTIONS OF THE 2012 EXERCISE
2.3.1. The two main steps to project the labour force/supply
2.3.2. Data sources and an additional assumption on labour input
2.4. LEGISLATED PENSION REFORMS IN EU MEMBER STATES
2.5. THE IMPACT OF PENSION REFORMS ON THE PARTICIPATION RATE OF OLDER WORKERS
2.5.1. Estimates of the impact of pension reforms
2.6. MAIN RESULTS OF THE PROJECTION OF LABOUR MARKET PARTICIPATION RATES
2.6.1. Projection of participation rates
2.6.2. Projection of labour supply
2.6.3. Breaking down changes in participation rates and labour force
2.7. ASSUMPTIONS ON STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT
2.8. EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS
2.9. RESULTING ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIOS
2.10. PROJECTION OF TOTAL HOURS WORKED
2.11. COMPARING THE 2012 AND 2009 LABOUR MARKET PROJECTIONS
ANNEX 2.1. PROJECTING LABOUR FORCE DEVELOPMENTS USING THE COHORT SIMULATION MODEL (CSM)
ANNEX 2.2. ESTIMATION OF THE AVERAGE EXIT AGE FROM THE LABOUR MARKET. - 3. LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY AND POTENTIAL GDP
3.1. BACKGROUND AND GENERAL APPROACH
3.1.1. A production function approach for the long-term projection exercise
3.2. METHODOLOGY USED TO PROJECT POTENTIAL OUTPUT
3.2.1. Description of the production function framework
3.3. SPECIFIC ASSUMPTIONS ON THE COMPONENTS OF THE PRODUCTION FUNCTION IN THE SHORT TERM (2011–15)
3.4. SPECIFIC ASSUMPTIONS ON THE COMPONENTS OF THE PRODUCTION FUNCTION IN THE LONGER TERM (2016–60)
3.5. THE KEY ASSUMPTION ON TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY DEVELOPMENTS 126
3.6. CAPITAL FORMATION
3.7. TAKING ACCOUNT OF THE CYCLICAL POSITION OF THE ECONOMY IN LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS
3.8. MAIN RESULTS OF BASELINE GDP PROJECTIONS
3.9. CROSS-COUNTRY DIFFERENCES
3.10. SOURCES OF GROWTH
3.11. COMPARISON WITH THE PREVIOUS 2009 LONG-TERM BUDGETARY PROJECTION EXERCISE
4. INTEREST RATES
4.1. BACKGROUND
4.2. ASSUMPTIONS ON INTEREST RATES TO BE USED IN THE 2012 PROJECTION OF AGERELATED EXPENDITURE
5. SENSITIVITY TESTS
5.1. BACKGROUND
5.2. MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS UNDER THE DIFFERENT SENSITIVITY SCENARIOS
PART II — AGE-RELATED EXPENDITURE ITEMS: COVERAGE, PROJECTION METHODOLOGIES AND DATA SOURCES
6. PENSIONS
6.1. MAIN FEATURES OF PENSION PROJECTIONS
6.2. COVERAGE OF PENSION PROJECTIONS
6.3. DEFINITIONS OF THE VARIABLES
ANNEX 6.1. PENSION PROJECTION REPORTING SHEET
7. HEALTHCARE
7.1. INTRODUCTION
7.2. GENERAL METHODOLOGY FOR PROJECTING PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON HEALTHCARE
7.3. MAIN DRIVERS OF HEALTHCARE EXPENDITURE AND PROJECTION SCENARIOS
7.4. DATA SOURCES
8. LONG-TERM CARE
8.1. SHORT OVERVIEW OF THE PROJECTION METHODOLOGY
8.2. SCENARIOS CARRIED OUT IN THE PROJECTION EXERCISE
8.3. DATA SOURCES
ANNEX 8.1. LONG-TERM CARE MODEL STRUCTURE 244
ANNEX 8.2. SOURCES OF DATA TO COMPUTE HEALTHCARE AND LONG-TERM CARE ACCORDING TO DATA AVAILABILITY
ANNEX 8.3. MATHEMATICAL ILLUSTRATION OF THE LONG-TERM CARE SCENARIOS
9. EDUCATION
9.1. INTRODUCTION. - 9.2. METHODOLOGY USED TO PROJECT EXPENDITURE ON EDUCATION
9.3. DATA
9.4. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
ANNEX 9.1. ORGANISATIONAL STRUCTURE OF SECONDARY EDUCATION
10. UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS
10.1. APPLYING THE METHODOLOGY USED IN PREVIOUS ROUNDS
10.2. METHODOLOGY USED TO PROJECT EXPENDITURE ON UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS
ISBN 978-92-79-19298-2
envelhecimento demográfico / seguro de velhice / segurança social / previsão económica / previsão a longo prazo / mercado do trabalho / produto interno bruto / educação / trabalhador migrante / análise comparativa / relatório / Estado-Membro UE / Noruega
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