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[000048129]
European Union. European Commission. Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs
European Economic Forecast : Autumn 2011 : Commission staff working document / Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs ; Marco Buti
In: 001000043848 European Economy Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Nº 6 (2011) vii, 236 p. 0379-0991 PP1606/6
. - Luxembourg : Publications Office, 2011. - (European Economy = previsões económicas . economic forecasts ). - (European Economy ; 6 (2011). ISSN 0379-0991 ). - Fascículo. - Documento eletrónico. - The European Commission publishes comprehensive macroeconomic forecasts twice-yearly in the spring and autumn. In this economic forecast published on 10 November 2011, the European Commission presents its assessment of the economic prospects for the EU and the euro area at the aggregate level. It also analyses developments in all individual Member States, as well as Candidate Countries and the economies of the US, Japan, China, Russia and the EFTA. A special chapter is dedicated to developments in EU labour markets.
Since the last fully-fledged forecast in May 2011, the outlook for the EU and the euro area has deteriorated. The protracted sovereign-debt crisis has taken its toll on confidence affecting investment and consumption. A worsening external economic environment has stalled exports, and the necessary fiscal consolidation is simultaneously restraining domestic demand.
These trends are expected to hold for several quarters, tilting growth prospects as well as the outlook for labour market developments to the downside. The first signs of improvements for GDP are projected for the second half of 2012; however, this recovery is expected to have a very limited impact on job creation.
Over the forecast period, inflation is projected to return to below 2%. Under the no-policy-change assumption, government deficits are set to decline to just above 3% of GDP by 2013. [editor]. - Overview
PART I: Economic developments at the aggregated level
1. The EU economy: A recovery in distress
1.1. Overview
1.2. Putting the forecast into perspective
1.3. The external environment
1.4. Financial markets in Europe
1.5. The EU economy
1.6. Risks
2. Post-recession labour market patterns in the EU
2.1. Introduction
2.2. Setting the scene: Employment prospects and unemployment developments
2.3. Factors driving labour market developments
2.4. Has the labour matching process deteriorated?
2.5. Trend and determinants of structural unemployment in the aftermath of the recession
2.6. Overall assessment
PART II: Prospects by individual economy
Member States
1. Belgium: Growth slowdown amidst weaker global growth and new bank worries
2. Bulgaria: Moderate growth amid rising uncertainty
3. The Czech Republic: Soft patch in 2012 followed by moderate recovery
4. Denmark: A modest recovery
5. Germany: Growth momentum temporarily halted by uncertainty
6. Estonia: Reviving domestic demand is balancing growth
7. Ireland: Export-driven recovery weighed by continuing household deleveraging and fiscal consolidation
8. Greece: Painful adjustment
9. Spain: Unwinding imbalances in a weakening external environment
10. France: Domestic growth weakened by global risks and declining confidence
11. Italy: Subdued growth ahead
12. Cyprus: Subdued growth prospects while fiscal challenges persist
13. Latvia: Growth exceeds expectations in 2011 but outlook for 2012 worsens
14. Lithuania: Strong recovery to dampen in line with global trends
15. Luxembourg: Uncertain times ahead for a large financial centre
16. Hungary: Bumpy ride ahead
17. Malta: Global uncertainty hits domestic demand
18. The Netherlands: Moderate growth hinging on external demand
19. Austria: Recovery losing pace
20. Poland: Progressing despite adverse global economic conditions. - 21. Portugal: Strong fiscal consolidation efforts in a challenging environment
22. Romania: Recovery to continue despite worsening external environment
23. Slovenia: Prospects depend on stabilisation of construction
24. Slovakia: Growth slowdown ahead
25. Finland: Economic recovery slowing but public finances stable
26. Sweden: Growth to decelerate amid rising uncertainty
27. The United Kingdom: The pause in growth risks becoming prolonged Candidate Countries
28. Croatia: Subdued economic activity in the near term
29. The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: Catching up, albeit with question marks ...
30. Iceland: Uncertainties persist amid a tentative recovery
31. Montenegro: A dilemma of growth and sluggish credit
32. Turkey: Riding the tides of the slowdown
Other non-EU Countries
33. The United States of America: Slowing growth amid greater uncertainty and fiscal consolidation
34. Japan: Strong rebound in the short run but fading prospects
35. China: Growth is slowing down
36. EFTA: The outlook deteriorates
37. Russian Federation: The recovery stutters
Statistical Annex
ISBN 978-92-79-19317-0
previsão económica / estatística do emprego / estatística da UE / estatísticas económicas / conjuntura económica / crescimento económico / indicador económico / análise económica / economia / Estado-Membro UE / recessão económica
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