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[000047474]
European Union. European Commission. Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs
Public finances in EMU : 2011 / European Commission. Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs
In: 001000043848 Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs European Economy Nº 3 (2011) ix, 212 p. 0379-0991 PP1606/6
. - Brussels : Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, 2011. - (European economy. 3 . Reports and Studies. ISSN 0379-0991 ). - (European Economy . Public finances in EMU ). - Fascículo. - Documento eletrónico. - Relatório. - "The annual report on the public finances in EMU brings together in a single publication a review of key policy developments and analytical findings in the area of the public finances. While considering the public finances in a wide sense, the particular focus of this year's report is sustainability, with the descriptive parts looking at the consolidation measures and policy changes required to aid an improvement in sustainability and the analytic parts focusing on what determines it and how it can be measures. In more detail though, the report starts with a detailed description and analysis of recent budgetary developments and an assessment of the outlook over the coming years. Second, it discusses the proposed reform to the EU's fiscal surveillance framework, which is currently awaiting final approval in the Council and the European Parliament. The third and fourth parts of the report provide analytical work on topical issues for fiscal policy makers. This year the focus in the third part is on the relationship between national fiscal frameworks and the spreads on sovereign debt – a topic that relates the reform of the EU budgetary surveillance framework with the issue of market expectations of sustainability. The analysis in the report shows that the quality of fiscal rules affects market expectations, with weak rules leading to higher spreads over bunds, once fiscal variables including the debt and deficit ratios have been controlled for. Finally, in its fourth part the report considers how the EU's current sustainability analysis can be improved and widened by complementing it with additional methodologies.. - The methodologies presented take on board some of the lessons of the crisis – namely that the financial sector poses a sustainability risk and that macrofinancial imbalances are also a key determinant of risk – and model them to enhance the assessment of sustainability. The possibility of using consolidations to close the gap in funding is also considered within a sustainability framework, with fiscal reaction functions being incorporated into standard analysis, and the effect of tax increases on revenue streams being analysed." [editor]. - Summary
Part I: Current developments and prospects
Summary
1. Current developments and prospects
1.1. A slow and uncertain recovery
1.2. The budgetary legacy of the crisis
1.3. Short-term developments and prospects for the budgetary position
1.4. Short-term developments and prospects for public debt
1.5. Government revenue and expenditure
2. Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact
2.1. Introduction
2.2. The excessive deficit procedure
3. Stability and convergence programmes set out the consolidation plans over the medium term
3.1. Macroeconomic scenarios
3.2. Deficit developments in 2012
3.3. Fiscal consolidation
3.4. Debt implications
3.5. Long-term fiscal sustainability
Part II: Evolving budgetary surveillance
Summary
1. Introduction
2. Reform of the preventive arm of the SGP
2.1. The Preventive Arm of the Pact
2.2. The reform of the preventive arm
3. Reform of the corrective arm of the SGP
3.1. The Corrective Arm of the Pact 89
3.2. The reform of the corrective arm
3.3. The operationalisation of the debt criterion
4. National fiscal frameworks
4.1. Introduction
4.2. National systems of public accounting and statistics
Part III: Fiscal governance and sovereign spreads 109
1. Fiscal governance and sovereign spreads 111
1.1. Introduction 111
1.2. Fiscal governance and sovereign risk: review of empirical evidence 112
1.3. Fiscal governance and sovereign risk: descriptive analysis 114
1.4. Effects of rules-based fiscal governance on sovereign spreads: econometric
analysis 123
1.5. Conclusion. - Part IV: Debt sustainability in the EU 129
Summary
1. Introduction
1.1. The traditional commission approach
1.2. Some new possible indicators for sustainability analysis
2. Potential impact of balance situation of the banks on public finance
2.1. Introduction
2.2. Methodology and data issues
2.3. Results and sustainability assessment
2.4. Conclusions
3. Fiscal Stress Analysis
3.1. Fiscal crisis risk models in sustainability assessment frameworks and early warning systems
3.2. The "signals approach": description of the methodology
3.3. A composite indicator of fiscal crisis vulnerability
3.4. Data and preliminary results
3.5. Conclusions
4. Fiscal reaction functions and debt thresholds for the EU
4.1. Introduction
4.2. Estimating a fiscal reaction function for the EU: some technical aspects
4.3. Predictions of primary balance in 2011 and 2012 based on the FRF
4.4. Thresholds for sustainable debt
4.5. Conclusions
5. A model-based approach to fiscal sustainability
5.1. Analysing fiscal limits with the QUEST model
5.2. Fiscal limits in sustainability analysis
5.3. Conclusion
Part V: Resources
1. Abbreviations and symbols used
2. Glossary
3. References
4. Useful Internet Links
List of tables
List of graphs
List of boxes
ISBN 978-92-79-19297-5
finanças públicas / pacto de estabilidade / ciclo económico / orçamento comunitário / Estado-Membro UE / finanças públicas / pacto de estabilidade / União Económica e Monetária / política fiscal / política orçamental / produto interno bruto / fiscalidade / economia de mercado
Código QR