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Registo bibliográfico
| Campo | Valor |
|---|---|
| FMT | AN |
| Leader | naa 22 450 |
| RecordID | 000046708 |
| Dados Gerais Proc. | 20110513d2011----k--y0pory0103----ba |
| Língua | inglês |
| País Publicação | União Europeia |
| Título | European Economic Forecast : Spring 2011 : Commission staff working document / Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs ; [introd.] Marco Buti |
| Publicação | [Brussels] : Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, 2011 |
| Colecção | |
| Colecção | |
| Tipo de Documento | Fascículo |
| Tipo de Documento | Documento eletrónico |
| Resumo | Determined and sustained implementation of policy reform is vital in order to harness the EU economy's potential in the face of possible new headwinds and to complete its return to strong, balanced and sustainable growth. The European Commission's 2011 Annual Growth Survey stresses the key economic policy priorities at this juncture: continuing coordinated implementation of rigorous fiscal consolidation to bring public finances back on a sustainable track; completing the financial repair of banks; as well as measures to correct macroeconomic imbalances and to boost long-term growth and competitiveness. Tackling unemployment, facilitating the reallocation of resources and preventing long-term exclusion from the labour market are essential ingredients of this mix. While relevant for the EU as a whole, this comprehensive policy agenda is particularly pertinent for the EU Member States implementing economic adjustment programmes supported by financial assistance from the EU and the IMF. / Marco Buti [Do Editorial] |
| Indice | Overview PART I: Economic developments at the aggregated level 1. European recovery maintains momentum amid new risks 1.1. A subdued recovery in its third year 1.2. The external environment 1.3. Financial markets in Europe 1.4. The economic recovery in the EU 1.5. Heightened uncertainty 2. Macroeconomic impact of higher sovereign risk 2.1. Introduction 2.2. Measuring the increase in the sovereign-risk premium 2.3. Impact of sovereign risk on public sector activity 2.4. Effects of higher sovereign risk on the financing of the corporate sector 2.5. Spillover to private consumption via wealth and confidence effects 3. Developments in and prospects for saving and investment trends across the European Union and the euro area 3.1. Introduction 3.2. Aggregate and Sectoral patterns in saving and investment 3.3. An assesment of potential driving forces behind developments in Saving and investment 3.4. Near-term adjustment prospects for saving and investment PART II: Prospects by individual economy Member States 1. Belgium: Recovery continues as labour market improves 2. Bulgaria: Moderate recovery alongside ongoing fiscal consolidation 3. The Czech Republic: A moderate recovery driven by external demand 4. Denmark: A gradual and moderate recovery 5. Germany: Steady, broad-based growth supported by sound fundamentals 6. Estonia: Economic recovery gaining further ground 7. Ireland: Ready for a gradual recovery after facing up to the full costs of the banking crisis 8. Greece: Rebalancing growth amidst ongoing fiscal consolidation 9. Spain: Subdued growth despite strong external demand 10. France: Continued recovery increasingly supported by investment 11. Italy: Slow recovery continues 12. Cyprus: Imbalances weighing on the economic recovery 13. Latvia: Economic and budgetary re-balancing continues at full speed 14. Lithuania: Strong recovery as domestic demand picks up |
| Indice | 15. Luxembourg: Strong growth, but still below pre-crisis average pace 16. Hungary: Recovery firming up, with a gradual rebalancing of growth 17. Malta: Moderate growth outlook after a strong rebound in 2010 18. The Netherlands: Gradual rebalancing of growth 19. Austria: Stronger growth, but subject to greater risk 20. Poland: Recovery continues as strong private demand counterbalances rapid fiscal consolidation 21. Portugal: Times of adjusting and rebalancing 22. Romania: Signs of recovery after a long recession 23. Slovenia: Momentum slow to build after particularly pronounced downturn 24. Slovakia: An externally-driven recovery continues 25. Finland: Economic recovery on a firm path 26. Sweden: Strong growth set to moderate as recovery matures 27. The United Kingdom: New growth sources to sustain the moderate recovery Candidate Countries 28. Croatia: Sluggish growth in the run-up to EU accession 29. The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: Between post-crisis and catching-up 30. Iceland: Slow recovery after long and severe recession 31. Montenegro: A recovery of sorts 32. Turkey: Robust growth driven by private sector demand Other non-EU Countries 33. The United States of America: A subdued recovery after the financial crisis 34. Japan: Darkened outlook after the earthquake 35. China: A soft landing? 36. EFTA: Well beyond the crisis 37. Russian Federation: V-shaped recovery continues Statistical Annex LIST OF TABLES I.1.1. International environment I.1.2. Main features of the spring 2011 forecast - EU I.1.3. GDP growth forecast, additional features (%) I.1.4. Main features of the spring 2011 forecast - euro area I.1.5. Euro-area debt dynamics I.2.1. CDS spreads of sovereign debt I.2.2. OLS Regression: Relationship between the change in bond spreads and public debt I.2.3. Simulations of bank losses of 1% of GDP: Impact in first year |
| Indice | I.3.1. Main long-run determinants of the private sector gross saving ratio I.3.2. Main long-run determinants of the priv. investment ratio LIST OF GRAPHS I.1.1. Real GDP, EU I.1.2. Comparison of recoveries, current against past average - GDP, euro area I.1.3. A global multi-speed recovery - real GDP, annual growth I.1.4a. GDP per capita, advanced economies I.1.4b. GDP per capita, emerging and developing economies I.1.5a. A multi-speed recovery in the EU - real GDP, annual growth (unweighted) I.1.5b. A multi-speed recovery in the EU - real GDP, annual growth (unweighted) I.1.6. Real GDP 2008-10 I.1.7. World trade and PMI global manufacturing output I.1.8. Commodity-price developments I.1.9. Policy interest rates, euro area, UK and US I.1.10. Bank lending to households and non-financial corporations, euro area I.1.11. Government-bond yields, selected Member States I.1.12. Corporate spreads over euro-area government benchmark bonds I.1.13. Stock-market performance I.1.14. Real GDP, euro area I.1.15. Industrial new orders and industrial production, EU I.1.16. Economic Sentiment Indicator and PMI composite index, EU I.1.17. EU real GDP growth 2010-12, largest contributions by Member States I.1.18. Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) and components - April 2011, difference from long-term average I.1.19. PMI manufacturing output index I.1.20. GDP growth and its components, EU I.1.21. Private consumption and consumer confidence, euro area I.1.22. Expected major purchases over the next year and car sales, EU I.1.23. Retail trade volumes and retail confidence, euro area I.1.24. Private consumption, real disposable income and saving rate, euro area I.1.25. Equipment investment and capacity utilisation in manufacturing, euro area I.1.26. Profit growth, euro area I.1.27. Housing investment and building permits, euro area |
| Indice | I.1.28. Global demand, euro-area exports and new export orders I.1.29. Current-account balances, euro-area Member States I.1.30. Current-account balance for deficit and surplus EU Member States I.1.31. The labour market, EU I.1.32. Industrial producer prices, euro area I.1.33. PMI manufacturing output prices and input prices, EU I.1.34. HICP, euro area I.1.35. Inflation breakdown, EU I.1.36. Inflation expectations, euro area I.1.37. Inflation dispersion of euro area Member states - HICP inflation rates I.1.38. General government budget balance I.1.39. Taxes and expenditure, euro area I.1.40. Euro area GDP forecasts - Uncertainty linked to the balance of risks I.2.1. Sovereign-bond yields I.2.2. Changes in sovereign-bond and sovereign-CDS spreads, 5-year maturities, 12/2009 to 4/2011 I.2.3. Rating events and sovereign-yield spreads I.2.4. Changes in interest-rate spreads and debt/GDP across euro-area Member States I.2.5. Debt-servicing costs by general government in 2011 I.2.6. Stock-price developments I.2.7. Sovereign- and corporate-bond spreads 2008-11 I.2.8. Yield on bonds issued by Portuguese corporate issuers I.2.9. CDS spread of sovereign and corporate debt I.2.10. Spreads on CDS contracts on Spanish corporates, 5-years maturity I.2.11. CDS spread on sovereign and banks senior debt I.2.12. Correlation between sovereign and bank CDS I.2.13. Credit standards on loans to NFIs I.2.14. NFI Credit Rate Spreads - versus Euribor rates I.2.15. Loans to NFI relative to GDP I.2.16. Value of sovereign bonds I.2.17. Impact of a 10-year lasting 400-basis-point sovereign-risk shock I.2.18. Euro area - Consumers' assessment of the general economic situation I.3.1. EU - Investment and saving I.3.2. Changes in saving and investment ratios: pre-crisis period (2005-07 vs. 1996-98) I.3.3. Changes in saving and investment ratios: crisis period (2008-10 vs. 2005-07) |
| Indice | I.3.4a. Changes in the saving ratio: pre-crisis period (2005-07 vs. 1996-98) I.3.4b. Changes in the saving ratio: crisis period (2008-10 vs. 2005-07) I.3.4c. Changes in the investment ratio: pre-crisis period (2005-07 vs. 1996-98) I.3.4d. Changes in the investment ratio: crisis period (2008-10 vs. 2005-07) I.3.5. Equipment: Investment-to-GDP ratios in EU countries, before and during the crisis I.3.6. Construction: Investment-to-GDP ratios in EU countries, before and during the crisis I.3.7. EU and EA: Output gap and general government deficit (1997-2009) I.3.8. Dependency ratio and general government deficits I.3.9. Sectoral saving, EU I.3.10. Real interest rates and savings, EU15 I.3.11. Gross government and private sector saving, EU I.3.12. Loans, financial assets and private saving I.3.13. Private saving and demographics I.3.14. Investment and economic activity, EU I.3.15. Investment-to-GDP ratios and price deflator of capital goods, 1996-2007 I.3.16. Equipment investment-to-GDP ratios and price deflator of capital goods, 1996-2007 I.3.17. Investment-to-GDP ratios and wage share, 1996-2007 I.3.18. Loans of non-financial corporations, euro area (Jan. 2000-Aug. 2010) I.3.19a. Private saving: actual and predicted long-run equilibrium ratio, 2008 I.3.19b. EU15: contribution to change in private gross saving ratio I.3.20. Private investment: actual and predicted long-run equilibrium ratios, 2008 I.3.21. EU15: contribution to change in private gross investment ratio I.3.22b. Changes in the investment ratio: forecast period (2012 vs. 2010) I.3.22a. Changes in the saving ratio and the current account balance: forecast period (2012 vs. 2010) LIST OF BOXES I.1.1. The impact of the Tōhoku earthquake in Japan on the world economy I.1.2. How far is the private sector in its deleveraging process? I.1.3. How do business and consumer survey readings depict the ongoing recovery? |
| Indice | I.1.4. The macroeconomic impact of higher oil prices I.1.5. Inflation differentials in the EU and euro area I.1.6. Some technical elements behind the forecast I.2.1. Measurement of the risk-free interest I.2.2. Contagion between Member States I.2.3. Econometric model to identify expectations shocks |
| Conjunto | European Economy Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Nº 1 (2011) vii, 234 p. 0379-0991 PP1606/6 |
| Top.Sub. | previsão económica |
| Top.Sub. | estatística do emprego |
| Top.Sub. | estatística da UE |
| Top.Sub. | estatísticas económicas |
| Top.Sub. | conjuntura económica |
| Top.Sub. | crescimento económico |
| Top.Sub. | indicador económico |
| Top.Sub. | análise económica |
| Top.Sub. | economia |
| Top.Sub. | Estado-Membro UE |
| Top.Sub. | recessão económica |
| Top.Sub. | crise monetária |
| Classificação Tem | 1621 estrutura económica eurovoc |
| Nome Autor | Buti, Marco, Autor da introdução |
| Colectividade | European Union. European Commission. Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs |
| Origem | PT CIEJD 20110513 RPC |
| Texto Integral | http://www.infoeuropa.eurocid.pt/files/database/000046001-000047000/000046708.Ficheiro PDF (Portable Document Format) 2116932 Versão digital Ficheiro PDF (Portable Document Format) Não |
| Proprietário | CIEJD |
| EST | REVISTO |
| SBL | CIEJD |
| Localização | CIEJD PP1606/6 ISSUE |
| STS | 02 |
| TYP | Analitico |
| HOR00 | 20110513 1523 |
| Catalogador inicial | TMARQUES |
| NºSistema | 000046708 |
| Código QR |
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